Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
