Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
